Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bruins, while the market favors Blackhawks (80%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bruins (-1.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (33%) · Bruins at 20¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Bruins20¢Blackhawks80¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bruins

Consensus Traders

Bruins 33%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$14.41

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 20¢

-56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBruins at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bruins

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Blackhawks 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bruins20%

Blackhawks80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bruins5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares14,018

Combined PnL-$118.68

Blackhawks10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,593

Combined PnL+$133.09

Bruins — 33%Blackhawks — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBruins 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpBruins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBlackhawks 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBlackhawks 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Blackhawks 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldyCTR	Bruinsavg 45¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$50	55% 1422-1181 (2603)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bruinsavg 45.2¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$206.2	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Bruinsavg 45¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$40.17	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
TO tomb2456	Blackhawksavg 54¢	$810	$885	+$75	50% 292-288 (580)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Blackhawksavg 54¢	$271.84	$307.04	+$35.2	59% 30487-21198 (51685)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Blackhawksavg 53¢	$116.6	$129.8	+$13.2	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
0xheavy888<$100	Blackhawksavg 54.6¢	$68.25	$66.25	-$2	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
HRTrading<$100	Blackhawksavg 53¢	$55.16	$61.21	+$6.04	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
RN1CTR<$100	Bruinsavg 41¢	$41	$41	+$0	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Blackhawksavg 71¢	$39.52	$34.62	-$4.91	48% 933-1004 (1937)
poshposh<$100	Blackhawksavg 56¢	$23.42	$33.46	+$10.04	59% 10226-7214 (17440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Blackhawksavg 54¢	$24.5	$26.06	+$1.57	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Bruinsavg 46.6¢	$21.98	$19.34	-$2.65	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Blackhawksavg 72¢	$7.2	$5.9	-$1.3	51% 1453-1400 (2853)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Blackhawksavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.95	+$0.25	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

roldyCTR

Bruins

Invested

$2,250

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

1422-1181 (2603)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bruins

Invested

$2,196.27

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$206.2

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Bruins

Invested

$1,807.65

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$40.17

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

tomb2456

Blackhawks

Invested

$810

Value

$885

PnL

+$75

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Blackhawks

Invested

$271.84

Value

$307.04

PnL

+$35.2

Record

59%

30487-21198 (51685)

0x0A77exmm

Blackhawks

Invested

$116.6

Value

$129.8

PnL

+$13.2

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

0xheavy888<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$68.25

Value

$66.25

PnL

-$2

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

HRTrading<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$55.16

Value

$61.21

PnL

+$6.04

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

RN1CTR<$100

Bruins

Invested

$41

Value

$41

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$39.52

Value

$34.62

PnL

-$4.91

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

poshposh<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$23.42

Value

$33.46

PnL

+$10.04

Record

59%

10226-7214 (17440)

ghorrock<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$24.5

Value

$26.06

PnL

+$1.57

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Bruins

Invested

$21.98

Value

$19.34

PnL

-$2.65

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$7.2

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.3

Record

51%

1453-1400 (2853)

ameisgoat11<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

AvoidBruins at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bruins

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Blackhawks 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBruins 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpBruins 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBlackhawks 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBlackhawks 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Blackhawks 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bruins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.