Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bruins, while the market favors Blackhawks (54%). 5 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Blackhawks vs. Bruins

5 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (26%) · Bruins at 47¢ · $82K held · ended Oct 31

Blackhawks54¢Bruins46¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bruins

Consensus Traders

Bruins 26%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$82.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 46.5¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBruins at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bruins

5 of 19 top traders (26%)Underdog side (market favors Blackhawks 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Blackhawks54%

Bruins47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bruins5 traders

Total Value$76.1K

Total Shares109,331

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Blackhawks14 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares15,766

Combined PnL+$60.17

Bruins — 26%Blackhawks — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBruins 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpBruins 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlackhawks 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedBlackhawks 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Blackhawks 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Bruinsavg 67.9¢	$56.5K	$55.3K	$-1.2K	52% 127-116 (243)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Bruinsavg 68¢	$20.1K	$20.0K	-$181.2	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
TO tomb2456	Blackhawksavg 32.4¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$72.5	50% 292-288 (580)
HE Herdonia	Blackhawksavg 31.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$78.94	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bruinsavg 68¢	$724.83	$708.94	-$15.89	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
VeryLucky888	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$640	$620	-$20	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
BA Bagwell306	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$319.68	$309.69	-$9.99	59% 4052-2864 (6916)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Blackhawksavg 45¢	$331.1	$270.11	-$60.99	48% 933-1004 (1937)
└ Blackhawks leg	Blackhawksavg 45¢	$286.9	$213.58	-$73.32
└ Bruins leg	Bruinsavg 52¢	$44.2	$56.53	+$12.33
NA NatoAlfista	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$233.2	$225.91	+$3.64	50% 3874-3834 (7708)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bruinsavg 49.9¢	$193.11	$198.63	+$5.52	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
└ Bruins leg	Bruinsavg 49.9¢	$116.2	$108.19	-$8.01
└ Blackhawks leg	Blackhawksavg 45.5¢	$76.92	$90.44	+$13.53
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Blackhawksavg 44.4¢	$193.28	$190.25	-$3.03	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
└ Blackhawks leg	Blackhawksavg 44.4¢	$104.28	$124.45	+$20.17
└ Bruins leg	Bruinsavg 63.6¢	$89	$65.8	-$23.2
BO BoomLaLa	Blackhawksavg 51.9¢	$158.47	$163.31	+$4.84	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
MY myxi	Blackhawksavg 48¢	$213.6	$149.08	-$64.52	68% 369-177 (546)
KnureKnumeCTR	Bruinsavg 52.5¢	$105	$133	+$28	48% 398-432 (830)
CO cocococococo	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$116.89	$113.23	-$1.83	52% 1658-1528 (3186)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Blackhawksavg 32.5¢	$36.07	$37.19	+$1.12	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$35.41	$36.87	+$1.46	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$21.76	$22.78	+$1.02	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
TO torta.tech<$100	Blackhawksavg 46¢	$25.3	$18.43	-$6.88	63% 8135-4874 (13009)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Blackhawksavg 50.7¢	$15.2	$15	-$0.2	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bruinsavg 52.8¢	$8.43	$10.24	+$1.81	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Blackhawksavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.68	+$0.07	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

taylorsversionCTR

Bruins

Invested

$56,459

Value

$55.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

52%

127-116 (243)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Bruins

Invested

$20,132.87

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$181.2

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

tomb2456

Blackhawks

Invested

$2,104.99

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$72.5

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

Herdonia

Blackhawks

Invested

$1,314.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$78.94

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bruins

Invested

$724.83

Value

$708.94

PnL

-$15.89

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

VeryLucky888

Blackhawks

Invested

$640

Value

$620

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

Bagwell306

Blackhawks

Invested

$319.68

Value

$309.69

PnL

-$9.99

Record

59%

4052-2864 (6916)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$331.1

Value

$270.11

PnL

-$60.99

Record

48%

933-1004 (1937)

Both legs:

Blackhawks$286.945¢-$73.32

Bruins$44.252¢+$12.33

NatoAlfista

Blackhawks

Invested

$233.2

Value

$225.91

PnL

+$3.64

Record

50%

3874-3834 (7708)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Bruins

Invested

$193.11

Value

$198.63

PnL

+$5.52

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

Both legs:

Bruins$116.249.9¢-$8.01

Blackhawks$76.9245.5¢+$13.53

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$193.28

Value

$190.25

PnL

-$3.03

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Both legs:

Blackhawks$104.2844.4¢+$20.17

Bruins$8963.6¢-$23.2

BoomLaLa

Blackhawks

Invested

$158.47

Value

$163.31

PnL

+$4.84

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

myxi

Blackhawks

Invested

$213.6

Value

$149.08

PnL

-$64.52

Record

68%

369-177 (546)

KnureKnumeCTR

Bruins

Invested

$105

Value

$133

PnL

+$28

Record

48%

398-432 (830)

cocococococo

Blackhawks

Invested

$116.89

Value

$113.23

PnL

-$1.83

Record

52%

1658-1528 (3186)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$36.07

Value

$37.19

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

BillBenter2026<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$35.41

Value

$36.87

PnL

+$1.46

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$21.76

Value

$22.78

PnL

+$1.02

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

torta.tech<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$25.3

Value

$18.43

PnL

-$6.88

Record

63%

8135-4874 (13009)

justaluckydude<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bruins

Invested

$8.43

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$1.81

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

ameisgoat11<$100

Blackhawks

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

NeutralBruins at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bruins

5 of 19 top traders (26%)Underdog side (market favors Blackhawks 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBruins 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpBruins 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlackhawks 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedBlackhawks 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Blackhawks 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bruins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.