Blue Jackets vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 65¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$809.65

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 65¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares12,958

Combined PnL+$63.82

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares7,412

Combined PnL-$873.47

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Underavg 60¢	$7.8K	$8.3K	+$64.74	47% 77-86 (163)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 40¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$839.1	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 39¢	$249.37	$66.08	-$31.17	56% 6856-5494 (12350)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$35.09	$31.49	-$3.6	32% 710-1538 (2248)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$27.6	$28	+$0.4	54% 2891-2482 (5373)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 64¢	$18.7	$18.7	-$0	60% 9181-6134 (15315)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.05	$2.13	-$0.92	54% 2744-2368 (5112)

chubbytoro

Under

Invested

$7,754.27

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$64.74

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,797

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$839.1

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$249.37

Value

$66.08

PnL

-$31.17

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.09

Value

$31.49

PnL

-$3.6

Record

32%

710-1538 (2248)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.6

Value

$28

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

2891-2482 (5373)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$18.7

Value

$18.7

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

9181-6134 (15315)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.92

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.