Blue Jackets vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$1.1K
$115.25
69.2¢ → 89¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 heyboy800 | Overavg 68.9¢ | $551.11 | $616 | +$64.89 | 61% 873-551 (1424) |
NO NordhavenCap | Overavg 69¢ | $355 | $396.16 | +$41.16 | 57% 2057-1547 (3604) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Overavg 66.2¢ | $49.33 | $57.38 | +$8.05 | 51% 435-423 (858) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $42.81 | $43.16 | +$0.35 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $30 | $30.8 | +$0.8 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
heyboy800Invested
$551.11
Value
$616
PnL
+$64.89
Record
61%
873-551 (1424)
Invested
$355
Value
$396.16
PnL
+$41.16
Record
57%
2057-1547 (3604)
Invested
$49.33
Value
$57.38
PnL
+$8.05
Record
51%
435-423 (858)
Invested
$42.81
Value
$43.16
PnL
+$0.35
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
Invested
$30
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.