Spread: Blue Jackets (-2.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (50%) · Flyers at 52¢ · $204 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Flyers
8
Flyers 50%
$203.95
-$5.79
Research grade
NeutralFlyers at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Flyersavg 50.2¢ | $38.82 | $63.81 | +$24.99 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 47¢ | $47 | $48 | +$1 | 50% 1112-1112 (2224) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 47.7¢ | $34.85 | $30.65 | -$4.2 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
 RN1<$100 | Flyersavg 30¢ | $9 | $24.75 | +$15.75 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 64.7¢ | $64.09 | $17.33 | -$46.77 | 63% 7957-4739 (12696) |
 poshposh<$100 | Flyersavg 48¢ | $8.54 | $13.47 | +$4.92 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Flyersavg 55.6¢ | $2.83 | $4.2 | +$1.37 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 46¢ | $4.6 | $1.75 | -$2.85 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
Invested
$38.82
Value
$63.81
PnL
+$24.99
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$47
Value
$48
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
1112-1112 (2224)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$30.65
PnL
-$4.2
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
RN1<$100Invested
$9
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$15.75
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
Invested
$64.09
Value
$17.33
PnL
-$46.77
Record
63%
7957-4739 (12696)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.54
Value
$13.47
PnL
+$4.92
Record
60%
9181-6134 (15315)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
$4.2
PnL
+$1.37
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$2.85
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.