Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Flyers (71%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (57%) · Blue Jackets at 29¢ · $641 held · ended Oct 27

Blue Jackets29¢Flyers71¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Blue Jackets

Consensus Traders

Blue Jackets 57%

Total Value

$641.41

Combined PnL

-$23.86

Smart Money Entry

31.2¢ → 29¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBlue Jackets at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Blue Jackets29%

Flyers71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets4 traders

Total Value$610.47

Total Shares2,054

Combined PnL-$30.83

Flyers3 traders

Total Value$30.94

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$6.97

Blue Jackets — 57%Flyers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBlue Jackets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Blue Jackets 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 30¢	$429	$429	-$0	54% 2267-1955 (4222)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 30¢	$533.33	$154.67	-$5.33	57% 2057-1547 (3604)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 80¢	$40	$14.5	-$25.5	53% 11428-9958 (21386)
poshposh<$100	Flyersavg 68¢	$13.38	$13.97	+$0.59	60% 9181-6134 (15315)
GH ghorrock<$100	Flyersavg 67.4¢	$26.83	$12.36	+$4.5	57% 12984-9900 (22884)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 30¢	$12.3	$12.3	-$0	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
HRTrading<$100	Flyersavg 42¢	$2.73	$4.62	+$1.89	54% 2744-2368 (5112)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$429

Value

$429

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

2267-1955 (4222)

NordhavenCapCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$533.33

Value

$154.67

PnL

-$5.33

Record

57%

2057-1547 (3604)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$40

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$25.5

Record

53%

11428-9958 (21386)

poshposh<$100

Flyers

Invested

$13.38

Value

$13.97

PnL

+$0.59

Record

60%

9181-6134 (15315)

ghorrock<$100

Flyers

Invested

$26.83

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$4.5

Record

57%

12984-9900 (22884)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

HRTrading<$100

Flyers

Invested

$2.73

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$1.89

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Research grade

AvoidBlue Jackets at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBlue Jackets 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Blue Jackets 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blue Jackets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.0%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.