Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Blue Jackets vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$2.9K
-$0.55
49¢ → 49¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0 | 61% 3943-2470 (6413) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 47% 2516-2814 (5330) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $25 | $24.25 | -$0.75 | 55% 7128-5716 (12844) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $10.62 | $10.82 | +$0.2 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
3943-2470 (6413)
Invested
$1,324.22
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2516-2814 (5330)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$24.25
PnL
-$0.75
Record
55%
7128-5716 (12844)
Invested
$10.62
Value
$10.82
PnL
+$0.2
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.