Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Stars (63%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Blue Jackets vs. Stars
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (20%) · Blue Jackets at 38¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Blue Jackets
5
Blue Jackets 20%
$23.1K
$495.87
Research grade
NeutralBlue Jackets at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoroCTR | Blue Jacketsavg 37¢ | $18.0K | $18.2K | +$243.27 | 46% 87-102 (189) |
RO roldy | Starsavg 63¢ | $4.4K | $4.7K | +$245 | 55% 1422-1181 (2603) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Starsavg 63¢ | $122.56 | $129.37 | +$6.81 | 50% 19237-19616 (38853) |
RO royalestake<$100 | Starsavg 62¢ | $20.22 | $20.38 | +$0.16 | 47% 380-437 (817) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Starsavg 62¢ | $8.64 | $9.26 | +$0.63 | 58% 28818-21252 (50070) |
Invested
$18,001.9
Value
$18.2K
PnL
+$243.27
Record
46%
87-102 (189)
Invested
$4,410
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$245
Record
55%
1422-1181 (2603)
Invested
$122.56
Value
$129.37
PnL
+$6.81
Record
50%
19237-19616 (38853)
Invested
$20.22
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$0.16
Record
47%
380-437 (817)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$0.63
Record
58%
28818-21252 (50070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.