Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 12¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$54.12
43.9¢ → 11.5¢
-74% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $1.0K | $978.25 | -$22.75 | 61% 3902-2449 (6351) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 56¢ | $269.92 | $273.24 | +$3.32 | 50% 6908-6896 (13804) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $61.27 | $61.37 | -$0.65 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43¢ | $39.99 | $39.52 | -$0.46 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56¢ | $21.28 | $21.85 | -$0.19 | |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $67.38 | $42.31 | -$25.07 | 54% 4827-4066 (8893) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $20.24 | $19.55 | -$0.69 | 55% 7001-5619 (12620) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $21.07 | $12.25 | -$8.82 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $0.52 | $0.41 | -$0.11 | 49% 674-698 (1372) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,001
Value
$978.25
PnL
-$22.75
Record
61%
3902-2449 (6351)
Invested
$269.92
Value
$273.24
PnL
+$3.32
Record
50%
6908-6896 (13804)
Invested
$61.27
Value
$61.37
PnL
-$0.65
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.38
Value
$42.31
PnL
-$25.07
Record
54%
4827-4066 (8893)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$20.24
Value
$19.55
PnL
-$0.69
Record
55%
7001-5619 (12620)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$21.07
Value
$12.25
PnL
-$8.82
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
674-698 (1372)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.