Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (67%) · Hurricanes at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29

Hurricanes61¢Blue Jackets39¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 67%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$314.78

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 61¢

+46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes61%

Blue Jackets39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,185

Combined PnL-$189.81

Hurricanes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,388

Combined PnL-$124.97

Blue Jackets — 33%Hurricanes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Blue Jacketsavg 55¢	$520.73	$534.94	+$14.2	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
RollAwayTheDew	Hurricanesavg 45¢	$530.92	$525.02	-$5.9	53% 363-319 (682)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 55¢	$660.63	$468.45	-$204.2	49% 674-698 (1372)
scootergene	Hurricanesavg 45¢	$531.61	$407.57	-$124.04	54% 371-315 (686)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hurricanesavg 34¢	$340	$345	+$5	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 65¢	$23.86	$24.05	+$0.18	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Hurricanesavg 35¢	$3.85	$3.8	-$0.06	54% 2951-2534 (5485)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Hurricanesavg 34¢	$3.49	$3.54	+$0.05	49% 18867-19279 (38146)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Hurricanesavg 35¢	$2.06	$2.03	-$0.03	53% 11512-10014 (21526)

RN1CTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$520.73

Value

$534.94

PnL

+$14.2

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

RollAwayTheDew

Hurricanes

Invested

$530.92

Value

$525.02

PnL

-$5.9

Record

53%

363-319 (682)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$660.63

Value

$468.45

PnL

-$204.2

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

scootergene

Hurricanes

Invested

$531.61

Value

$407.57

PnL

-$124.04

Record

54%

371-315 (686)

HomeRunHazard

Hurricanes

Invested

$340

Value

$345

PnL

+$5

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$23.86

Value

$24.05

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

2951-2534 (5485)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

18867-19279 (38146)

BoomLaLa<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.