Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (60%) · Hurricanes at 80¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29

Hurricanes80¢Blue Jackets20¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 60%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$108.31

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 79.5¢

+69% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes80%

Blue Jackets21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,697

Combined PnL+$117.12

Blue Jackets2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL-$8.81

Hurricanes — 60%Blue Jackets — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hurricanesavg 47.1¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$116.86	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
0xheavy888CTR	Blue Jacketsavg 52¢	$995.66	$986.23	-$9.43	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Hurricanesavg 48.4¢	$47.45	$47.53	+$0.08	54% 2951-2534 (5485)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Blue Jacketsavg 52.1¢	$23.56	$23.96	+$0.63	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Hurricanesavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.42	+$0.17	57% 2136-1591 (3727)

HomeRunHazard

Hurricanes

Invested

$4,051.27

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$116.86

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

0xheavy888CTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$995.66

Value

$986.23

PnL

-$9.43

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$47.45

Value

$47.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2951-2534 (5485)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Blue Jackets

Invested

$23.56

Value

$23.96

PnL

+$0.63

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

NordhavenCap<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

2136-1591 (3727)

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.