Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (60%) · Hurricanes at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Hurricanes
5
Hurricanes 60%
$3.7K
$13.5
68¢ → 68.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHurricanes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Hurricanesavg 68¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$19.57 | 55% 1407-1171 (2578) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Blue Jacketsavg 32¢ | $572 | $563.06 | -$8.94 | 54% 16875-14147 (31022) |
CO cocococococo | Hurricanesavg 68¢ | $377.4 | $380.18 | +$2.78 | 52% 1646-1521 (3167) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Hurricanesavg 68¢ | $37.67 | $37.94 | +$0.28 | 50% 5776-5883 (11659) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 32¢ | $11.48 | $11.3 | -$0.18 | 57% 13182-10033 (23215) |
Invested
$2,661.45
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$19.57
Record
55%
1407-1171 (2578)
Invested
$572
Value
$563.06
PnL
-$8.94
Record
54%
16875-14147 (31022)
Invested
$377.4
Value
$380.18
PnL
+$2.78
Record
52%
1646-1521 (3167)
Invested
$37.67
Value
$37.94
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
5776-5883 (11659)
Invested
$11.48
Value
$11.3
PnL
-$0.18
Record
57%
13182-10033 (23215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.