Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Hurricanes (73%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hurricanes vs. Kraken
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (67%) · Kraken at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Kraken
6
Kraken 67%
$1.1K
$14.07
27¢ → 27.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKraken at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Krakenavg 27¢ | $652.67 | $664.76 | +$12.09 | 3% 6-184 (190) |
PU purplegatto | Hurricanesavg 72¢ | $218.16 | $218.16 | +$0 | 69% 2600-1194 (3794) |
 nigiri99 | Hurricanesavg 72¢ | $136.08 | $136.08 | +$0 | 51% 283-275 (558) |
GH ghorrockCTR | Krakenavg 26.8¢ | $109.18 | $53.5 | +$1.24 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Krakenavg 26.3¢ | $91.87 | $39.95 | +$2.08 | 47% 896-997 (1893) |
WE westing.v1CTR<$100 | Krakenavg 28¢ | $37.54 | $36.2 | -$1.34 | 16% 14-74 (88) |
Invested
$652.67
Value
$664.76
PnL
+$12.09
Record
3%
6-184 (190)
Invested
$218.16
Value
$218.16
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2600-1194 (3794)
nigiri99Invested
$136.08
Value
$136.08
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
283-275 (558)
Invested
$109.18
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$1.24
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$91.87
Value
$39.95
PnL
+$2.08
Record
47%
896-997 (1893)
Invested
$37.54
Value
$36.2
PnL
-$1.34
Record
16%
14-74 (88)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.