Hurricanes vs. Predators

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (50%) · Hurricanes at 65¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Hurricanes65¢Predators35¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 50%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$85.59

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes65%

Predators36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,824

Combined PnL-$95.94

Predators3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,614

Combined PnL+$10.35

Hurricanes — 50%Predators — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePredators 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHurricanes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Reformedx	Hurricanesavg 65¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$40	52% 848-798 (1646)
CO cocococococo	Hurricanesavg 66¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$55.51	52% 1668-1540 (3208)
RO roldyCTR	Predatorsavg 35¢	$724.41	$734.76	+$10.35	55% 1436-1193 (2629)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Predatorsavg 35¢	$652	$652	+$0	54% 17545-14744 (32289)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Predatorsavg 35¢	$238.54	$238.54	+$0	48% 5733-6182 (11915)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hurricanesavg 65.1¢	$24.27	$23.85	-$0.43	57% 17526-13092 (30618)

Reformedx

Hurricanes

Invested

$2,599.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$40

Record

52%

848-798 (1646)

cocococococo

Hurricanes

Invested

$1,838.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$55.51

Record

52%

1668-1540 (3208)

roldyCTR

Predators

Invested

$724.41

Value

$734.76

PnL

+$10.35

Record

55%

1436-1193 (2629)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Predators

Invested

$652

Value

$652

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17545-14744 (32289)

ferdinand2CTR

Predators

Invested

$238.54

Value

$238.54

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

ghorrock<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$24.27

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$0.43

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

Research grade

NeutralHurricanes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hurricanes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePredators 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHurricanes 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHurricanes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hurricanes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.