Flames vs. Sharks
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (90%) · Sharks at 53¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Sharks
10
Sharks 90%
$34.7K
-$406.84
53.2¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralSharks at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BT btmx6 | Sharksavg 53¢ | $13.7K | $13.5K | -$129.03 | 46% 21-25 (46) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Sharksavg 53.6¢ | $7.0K | $6.8K | -$147.21 | 72% 6936-2743 (9679) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Sharksavg 53¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | -$50 | 47% 2623-2923 (5546) |
LU LuckyLoo | Sharksavg 53¢ | $3.4K | $3.3K | -$31.74 | 49% 13480-14176 (27656) |
 VeryLucky888 | Sharksavg 53.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$40 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
UP UpTheBlues | Sharksavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$12.65 | 58% 48522-34672 (83194) |
RO roldyCTR | Flamesavg 46¢ | $938.38 | $968.98 | +$30.6 | 55% 1436-1193 (2629) |
38 38791873984189 | Sharksavg 55¢ | $542.79 | $526.11 | -$4.46 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Sharksavg 54¢ | $540 | $525 | -$15 | 53% 5752-5086 (10838) |
 0xheavy888 | Sharksavg 53.7¢ | $329.61 | $322.27 | -$7.35 | 56% 7468-5986 (13454) |
Invested
$13,677.42
Value
$13.5K
PnL
-$129.03
Record
46%
21-25 (46)
Invested
$6,986.62
Value
$6.8K
PnL
-$147.21
Record
72%
6936-2743 (9679)
Invested
$5,300
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$50
Record
47%
2623-2923 (5546)
Invested
$3,364.97
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$31.74
Record
49%
13480-14176 (27656)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,140
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$40
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$1,341.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$12.65
Record
58%
48522-34672 (83194)
Invested
$938.38
Value
$968.98
PnL
+$30.6
Record
55%
1436-1193 (2629)
Invested
$542.79
Value
$526.11
PnL
-$4.46
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
Invested
$540
Value
$525
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
5752-5086 (10838)
0xheavy888Invested
$329.61
Value
$322.27
PnL
-$7.35
Record
56%
7468-5986 (13454)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
btmx6
Sharks — $13.5K
AnonymousUsername
Sharks — $6.8K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
Sharks — $5.3K
LuckyLoo
Sharks — $3.3K
VeryLucky888
Sharks — $2.1K
UpTheBlues
Sharks — $1.3K
roldy
CTRFlames — $968.98
38791873984189
Sharks — $526.11
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
Sharks — $525
0xheavy888
Sharks — $322.27