Flames vs. Kings: O/U 6.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 13%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$807.43

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,956

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,649

Combined PnL-$243.65

Under — 13%Over — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Underavg 59.9¢	$2.4K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	53% 113-99 (212)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 40¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$206.1	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$28.4	$24.14	-$4.26	48% 416-456 (872)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 39.2¢	$22.32	$7.7	-$14.63	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$6.88	$5.84	-$1.03	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$6	$5.1	-$0.9	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$17.6	$3.52	-$14.08	52% 365-331 (696)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$4	$1.35	-$2.65	42% 775-1070 (1845)

taylorsversion

Under

Invested

$2,370.6

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

113-99 (212)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,374

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$206.1

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.4

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$4.26

Record

48%

416-456 (872)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.32

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$14.63

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.88

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$1.03

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.6

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$14.08

Record

52%

365-331 (696)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$2.65

Record

42%

775-1070 (1845)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.