Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$12.43

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,339

Combined PnL+$95.94

Under3 traders

Total Value$996.37

Total Shares2,239

Combined PnL-$108.37

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Overavg 52¢	$849.68	$906.87	+$57.19	61% 3850-2418 (6268)
BB bbbetkCTR	Underavg 50¢	$750	$667.5	-$82.5	50% 145-147 (292)
RO roldy	Overavg 50¢	$352.27	$391.02	+$38.75	55% 1407-1171 (2578)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 48¢	$322.1	$298.61	-$23.49	54% 2274-1960 (4234)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$32.64	$30.26	-$2.38	50% 6813-6827 (13640)

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$849.68

Value

$906.87

PnL

+$57.19

Record

61%

3850-2418 (6268)

bbbetkCTR

Under

Invested

$750

Value

$667.5

PnL

-$82.5

Record

50%

145-147 (292)

roldy

Over

Invested

$352.27

Value

$391.02

PnL

+$38.75

Record

55%

1407-1171 (2578)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$322.1

Value

$298.61

PnL

-$23.49

Record

54%

2274-1960 (4234)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.64

Value

$30.26

PnL

-$2.38

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.