Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (81%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 20¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$4.6K
-$38.91
59¢ → 19.5¢
-67% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 61¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$143.85 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 39¢ | $965 | $878.4 | -$86.6 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 38.7¢ | $898.88 | $824.31 | -$74.57 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Overavg 43.3¢ | $232.5 | $212.17 | -$20.33 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $11.2 | $9.94 | -$1.26 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$2,507.1
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$143.85
Record
56%
6932-5550 (12482)
Invested
$965
Value
$878.4
PnL
-$86.6
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$898.88
Value
$824.31
PnL
-$74.57
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$232.5
Value
$212.17
PnL
-$20.33
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$9.94
PnL
-$1.26
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.