Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oilers, while the market favors Flames (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (60%) · Oilers at 43¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Oilers
5
Oilers 60%
$4.2K
-$72.9
44.1¢ → 42.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOilers at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Flames 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO tomb2456 | Flamesavg 56¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$75 | 50% 275-273 (548) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Oilersavg 44¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | -$74.8 | 54% 2275-1960 (4235) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Oilersavg 44.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$72.75 | 49% 263-269 (532) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Flamesavg 58¢ | $9.85 | $9.85 | -$0 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Oilersavg 43.1¢ | $9.02 | $8.68 | -$0.34 | 57% 13208-10063 (23271) |
Invested
$1,680
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$75
Record
50%
275-273 (548)
Invested
$1,316.55
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$74.8
Record
54%
2275-1960 (4235)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$1,172.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$72.75
Record
49%
263-269 (532)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
Invested
$9.02
Value
$8.68
PnL
-$0.34
Record
57%
13208-10063 (23271)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.