Flames vs. Oilers

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (33%) · Oilers at 64¢ · $55K held · ends Oct 29

Flames37¢Oilers63¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 33%

Total Value

$55.2K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 63.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

6 of 18 top traders (33%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Flames37%

Oilers64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers6 traders

Total Value$48.5K

Total Shares68,278

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Flames12 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares20,936

Combined PnL-$890.87

Oilers — 33%Flames — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Libratus007	Oilersavg 65¢	$19.5K	$21.4K	+$1.9K	— 1-1 (2)
RO royalestake	Oilersavg 64.3¢	$14.8K	$16.4K	+$1.6K	46% 372-430 (802)
VI vibing123	Oilersavg 63¢	$6.4K	$7.3K	+$866.02	52% 1541-1426 (2967)
Reformedx	Oilersavg 63¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$19.45	52% 788-732 (1520)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flamesavg 35.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$27.3	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
RO roldyCTR	Flamesavg 37¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$510	55% 1407-1171 (2578)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Flamesavg 36¢	$1.1K	$855	-$225	59% 4001-2836 (6837)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Flamesavg 36¢	$755.91	$766.41	+$10.5	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
VeryLucky888CTR	Flamesavg 36.7¢	$733.69	$730	-$3.69	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Oilersavg 65¢	$650	$715	+$65	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
TO tomb2456CTR	Flamesavg 35¢	$778.44	$633.87	-$144.57	50% 275-273 (548)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Flamesavg 35¢	$186.9	$152.19	-$34.71	50% 6813-6826 (13639)
0xheavy888	Oilersavg 65¢	$130	$143	+$13	56% 6910-5525 (12435)
VI viper0310CTR<$100	Flamesavg 34.9¢	$25.51	$24.28	-$1.23	46% 16-19 (35)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$21.83	$16.81	-$5.02	50% 12108-12317 (24425)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$20.35	$15.67	-$4.68	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flamesavg 35.5¢	$9.17	$9.41	+$0.25	57% 13139-10016 (23155)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.83	-$0.03	47% 2041-2345 (4386)

Libratus007

Oilers

Invested

$19,499.99

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

royalestake

Oilers

Invested

$14,799.99

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

46%

372-430 (802)

vibing123

Oilers

Invested

$6,418.74

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$866.02

Record

52%

1541-1426 (2967)

Reformedx

Oilers

Invested

$2,450.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$19.45

Record

52%

788-732 (1520)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flames

Invested

$1,742.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$27.3

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

roldyCTR

Flames

Invested

$2,220

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$510

Record

55%

1407-1171 (2578)

Bagwell306CTR

Flames

Invested

$1,080

Value

$855

PnL

-$225

Record

59%

4001-2836 (6837)

UpTheBluesCTR

Flames

Invested

$755.91

Value

$766.41

PnL

+$10.5

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

VeryLucky888CTR

Flames

Invested

$733.69

Value

$730

PnL

-$3.69

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Oilers

Invested

$650

Value

$715

PnL

+$65

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

tomb2456CTR

Flames

Invested

$778.44

Value

$633.87

PnL

-$144.57

Record

50%

275-273 (548)

Forecastication2CTR

Flames

Invested

$186.9

Value

$152.19

PnL

-$34.71

Record

50%

6813-6826 (13639)

0xheavy888

Oilers

Invested

$130

Value

$143

PnL

+$13

Record

56%

6910-5525 (12435)

viper0310CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$25.51

Value

$24.28

PnL

-$1.23

Record

46%

16-19 (35)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$21.83

Value

$16.81

PnL

-$5.02

Record

50%

12108-12317 (24425)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$20.35

Value

$15.67

PnL

-$4.68

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$9.17

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

6 of 18 top traders (33%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.