Flames vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 51¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$93.16

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares17,640

Combined PnL+$132.28

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,536

Combined PnL-$39.12

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Underavg 50¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$146.99	52% 127-116 (243)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 50¢	$10.7K	$5.3K	-$53.35	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
ComingBack	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$14.71	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 49¢	$731.08	$738.54	+$7.46	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 49¢	$341.06	$344.54	+$3.48	47% 2516-2814 (5330)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 49¢	$294	$297	+$3	54% 4890-4116 (9006)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$33.32	$33.66	+$0.34	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$4.9	-$0.05	50% 7034-7032 (14066)

taylorsversion

Under

Invested

$7,349.5

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$146.99

Record

52%

127-116 (243)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$10,670

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$53.35

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.71

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$731.08

Value

$738.54

PnL

+$7.46

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$341.06

Value

$344.54

PnL

+$3.48

Record

47%

2516-2814 (5330)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$294

Value

$297

PnL

+$3

Record

54%

4890-4116 (9006)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.32

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

7034-7032 (14066)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.