Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (67%) · Flames at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Flames
6
Flames 67%
$9.0K
$58.4
53.2¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlames at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA para-Vision | Flamesavg 53¢ | $6.4K | $6.4K | +$60 | 56% 215-167 (382) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Flamesavg 54¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$11.4 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
GO goldmynameCTR | Avalancheavg 46¢ | $819.3 | $828.21 | +$8.91 | 60% 139-93 (232) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Avalancheavg 45¢ | $31.05 | $32.09 | +$1.04 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Flamesavg 54¢ | $13.5 | $13.38 | -$0.13 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
PI PIPIZIN<$100 | Flamesavg 54¢ | $1 | $0.99 | -$0.01 | 52% 424-399 (823) |
Invested
$6,360
Value
$6.4K
PnL
+$60
Record
56%
215-167 (382)
Invested
$1,682.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$11.4
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$819.3
Value
$828.21
PnL
+$8.91
Record
60%
139-93 (232)
Invested
$31.05
Value
$32.09
PnL
+$1.04
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$13.38
PnL
-$0.13
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.99
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
424-399 (823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.