Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Flames, while the market favors Avalanche (80%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Flames vs. Avalanche

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (56%) · Flames at 21¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Flames21¢Avalanche79¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Flames

Consensus Traders

Flames 56%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$130.77

Smart Money Entry

21.3¢ → 20.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlames at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Flames21%

Avalanche80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Avalanche4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,048

Combined PnL+$104.12

Flames5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares23,027

Combined PnL+$26.65

Avalanche — 44%Flames — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cocococococo	Avalancheavg 73¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$99.99	52% 1658-1528 (3186)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Flamesavg 21¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$39.75	74% 6673-2396 (9069)
RO royalestakeCTR	Flamesavg 22¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0	47% 380-437 (817)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Flamesavg 21¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$30.98	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
HI hi774cCTR	Flamesavg 21¢	$395	$413.81	+$18.81	52% 4731-4450 (9181)
HE Herdonia	Avalancheavg 79¢	$367.32	$369.64	+$2.32	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Avalancheavg 79¢	$227.94	$229.38	+$1.44	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Avalancheavg 79¢	$57.67	$58.04	+$0.37	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flamesavg 21.6¢	$34.18	$20.53	-$0.94	57% 13805-10579 (24384)

cocococococo

Avalanche

Invested

$1,622.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$99.99

Record

52%

1658-1528 (3186)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Flames

Invested

$1,669.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$39.75

Record

74%

6673-2396 (9069)

royalestakeCTR

Flames

Invested

$1,517.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

380-437 (817)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Flames

Invested

$1,300.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$30.98

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

hi774cCTR

Flames

Invested

$395

Value

$413.81

PnL

+$18.81

Record

52%

4731-4450 (9181)

Herdonia

Avalanche

Invested

$367.32

Value

$369.64

PnL

+$2.32

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Avalanche

Invested

$227.94

Value

$229.38

PnL

+$1.44

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$57.67

Value

$58.04

PnL

+$0.37

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$34.18

Value

$20.53

PnL

-$0.94

Record

57%

13805-10579 (24384)

Research grade

AvoidFlames at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 80%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flames wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.