Flames vs. Ducks

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (33%) · Ducks at 57¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 16

Flames43¢Ducks57¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 33%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$96.03

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Flames43%

Ducks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flames6 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares11,148

Combined PnL+$53.6

Ducks3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,576

Combined PnL+$42.43

Flames — 67%Ducks — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Flamesavg 42¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$47.97	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
RO roldy	Ducksavg 58¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$31.58	48% 22-24 (46)
CO cocococococo	Ducksavg 58¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.11	28% 19-50 (69)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Flamesavg 41¢	$570.44	$577.4	+$6.96	44% 100-128 (228)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Flamesavg 42¢	$41.6	$40.61	-$0.99	25% 36-109 (145)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ducksavg 58.9¢	$41.91	$36.72	-$0.26	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Flamesavg 42¢	$20	$19.52	-$0.48	9% 9-88 (97)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flamesavg 40¢	$19.66	$4.82	+$0.19	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Flamesavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.05	-$0.05	47% 691-793 (1484)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Flames

Invested

$4,029.32

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$47.97

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

roldy

Ducks

Invested

$3,663.46

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$31.58

Record

48%

22-24 (46)

cocococococo

Ducks

Invested

$1,288.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.11

Record

28%

19-50 (69)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Flames

Invested

$570.44

Value

$577.4

PnL

+$6.96

Record

44%

100-128 (228)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$41.6

Value

$40.61

PnL

-$0.99

Record

25%

36-109 (145)

Pan9X<$100

Ducks

Invested

$41.91

Value

$36.72

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$20

Value

$19.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

9-88 (97)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$19.66

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.