Sabres vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 54¢ · $263 held · ends Oct 28

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$262.99

Combined PnL

$2.27

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$167.24

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$2.1

Under2 traders

Total Value$95.76

Total Shares210

Combined PnL+$0.16

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Overavg 53.8¢	$161.47	$163.64	+$2.17	47% 77-86 (163)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$50.09	$50.26	+$0.16	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$45.5	$45.5	+$0	56% 6853-5493 (12346)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 55¢	$3.66	$3.59	-$0.07	57% 2057-1547 (3604)

chubbytoro

Over

Invested

$161.47

Value

$163.64

PnL

+$2.17

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.09

Value

$50.26

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.5

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6853-5493 (12346)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

2057-1547 (3604)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.