Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sabres, while the market favors Sharks (64%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (50%) · Sabres at 37¢ · $951 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Sabres
6
Sabres 50%
$951.1
$0.41
35.7¢ → 36.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSabres at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Sharks 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Sabresavg 36¢ | $586.47 | $594.61 | +$8.15 | 54% 2267-1955 (4222) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Sabresavg 35¢ | $304.96 | $296.25 | -$8.71 | 49% 255-263 (518) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Sharksavg 65¢ | $21.57 | $21.82 | +$0.25 | 57% 12947-9854 (22801) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Sharksavg 65¢ | $18.2 | $18.48 | +$0.28 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Sharksavg 63¢ | $15.74 | $16.49 | +$0.75 | 56% 6850-5490 (12340) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Sabresavg 37¢ | $3.75 | $3.45 | -$0.3 | 57% 2057-1547 (3604) |
Invested
$586.47
Value
$594.61
PnL
+$8.15
Record
54%
2267-1955 (4222)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$304.96
Value
$296.25
PnL
-$8.71
Record
49%
255-263 (518)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$21.82
PnL
+$0.25
Record
57%
12947-9854 (22801)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.48
PnL
+$0.28
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$15.74
Value
$16.49
PnL
+$0.75
Record
56%
6850-5490 (12340)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
2057-1547 (3604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.