Sabres vs. Sharks
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (43%) · Sabres at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Sabres
7
Sabres 43%
$10.4K
-$18.87
58¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSabres at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Sabresavg 58¢ | $8.7K | $8.7K | -$0 | 48% 498-531 (1029) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sharksavg 42¢ | $840 | $830 | -$10 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
BA banepirCTR | Sharksavg 43¢ | $774 | $828 | -$9 | 49% 443-458 (901) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Sharksavg 42¢ | $36.12 | $36.12 | +$0 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Sharksavg 42¢ | $24.07 | $24.07 | +$0 | 57% 12963-9878 (22841) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Sabresavg 58¢ | $3.87 | $3.87 | +$0 | 57% 2057-1547 (3604) |
 cassandra.torchlight<$100 | Sabresavg 55¢ | $2.78 | $2.93 | +$0.13 | 49% 255-263 (518) |
Invested
$8,700.96
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
498-531 (1029)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$840
Value
$830
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$774
Value
$828
PnL
-$9
Record
49%
443-458 (901)
Invested
$36.12
Value
$36.12
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$24.07
Value
$24.07
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12963-9878 (22841)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$3.87
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
2057-1547 (3604)
cassandra.torchlight<$100Invested
$2.78
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.13
Record
49%
255-263 (518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.