Sabres vs. Kings: O/U 5.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 75¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$115.74

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 74.5¢

+71% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,903

Combined PnL+$11.62

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,770

Combined PnL-$127.35

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Overavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$53.65	52% 127-116 (243)
ComingBack	Underavg 44¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$153.41	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0xheavy888	Underavg 43¢	$906.81	$906.81	-$0	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 57¢	$128.82	$92.66	-$36.16	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 40.8¢	$41.32	$71.93	+$30.62	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$49.58	$45.03	-$4.55	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 72¢	$49.63	$43.76	-$5.87	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 36.5¢	$11.42	$11.41	-$0.01	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.95	+$0	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

taylorsversionCTR

Over

Invested

$2,021.03

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$53.65

Record

52%

127-116 (243)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$153.41

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$906.81

Value

$906.81

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$128.82

Value

$92.66

PnL

-$36.16

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$41.32

Value

$71.93

PnL

+$30.62

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$49.58

Value

$45.03

PnL

-$4.55

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.63

Value

$43.76

PnL

-$5.87

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.41

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.