Spread: Sabres (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (44%) · Kings at 57¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Sabres43¢Kings57¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$271.66

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 57.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKings at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sabres43%

Kings57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,063

Combined PnL-$269.99

Sabres5 traders

Total Value$18.96

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$1.67

Kings — 44%Sabres — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKings 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Kingsavg 68¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$270	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Kingsavg 83¢	$41.5	$41.5	-$0	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
TA taylorsversionCTR<$100	Sabresavg 32¢	$9.34	$13.14	+$0.15	52% 127-116 (243)
0X 0x0A77exmm<$100	Kingsavg 67¢	$5.36	$5.44	+$0.04	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sabresavg 45¢	$4.09	$3.64	-$0.45	48% 948-1024 (1972)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Kingsavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.4	-$0.03	48% 2435-2653 (5088)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Sabresavg 43.6¢	$1.88	$0.73	-$1.15	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sabresavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.73	-$0.09	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
DA dabossrealmanCTR<$100	Sabresavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.73	-$0.13	61% 2564-1626 (4190)

0xheavy888

Kings

Invested

$1,360

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$270

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

BoomLaLa<$100

Kings

Invested

$41.5

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

taylorsversionCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$9.34

Value

$13.14

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

127-116 (243)

0x0A77exmm<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$4.09

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kings

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$1.88

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.09

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

dabossrealmanCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

61%

2564-1626 (4190)

Research grade

NeutralKings at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKings 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.