Sabres vs. Kings
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (25%) · Sabres at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Sabres
4
Sabres 25%
$8.4K
$60.6
Research grade
NeutralSabres at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Sabresavg 53¢ | $5.0K | $5.1K | +$94.17 | 52% 127-116 (243) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Kingsavg 47¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$17.59 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Kingsavg 47¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$15 | 47% 380-437 (817) |
RO roldyCTR | Kingsavg 46.1¢ | $336.4 | $335.42 | -$0.98 | 55% 1422-1181 (2603) |
Invested
$4,990.84
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$94.17
Record
52%
127-116 (243)
Invested
$1,652.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$17.59
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$1,410
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$15
Record
47%
380-437 (817)
Invested
$336.4
Value
$335.42
PnL
-$0.98
Record
55%
1422-1181 (2603)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.