Sabres vs. Stars: O/U 6.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 64¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 15

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

-$90.06

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 64¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares16,713

Combined PnL-$50.06

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares16,730

Combined PnL-$40

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 53¢	$8.4K	$8.2K	-$158.49	50% 2654-2620 (5274)
RO royalestakeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$0	8% 17-193 (210)
BA BabooouCTR	Overavg 47¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$34.45	58% 18-13 (31)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53¢	$440	$547.92	+$107.92	27% 392-1065 (1457)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47¢	$390.19	$386.04	-$4.15	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$115.49	$100.86	+$25.49	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$52.09	$67.11	+$24.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 32¢	$32.72	$33.75	+$1.02
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$17.65	$18.16	+$0.51	56% 566-451 (1017)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.8	$3.4	-$1.4	53% 323-288 (611)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$8,400

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$158.49

Record

50%

2654-2620 (5274)

royalestakeCTR

Over

Invested

$4,230

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

17-193 (210)

BabooouCTR

Over

Invested

$3,238.3

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$34.45

Record

58%

18-13 (31)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$440

Value

$547.92

PnL

+$107.92

Record

27%

392-1065 (1457)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$390.19

Value

$386.04

PnL

-$4.15

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$115.49

Value

$100.86

PnL

+$25.49

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

Both legs:

Under$52.0952¢+$24.46

Over$32.7232¢+$1.02

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$17.65

Value

$18.16

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

566-451 (1017)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.