Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sabres vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,343

Combined PnL+$28.48

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,164

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldy	Overavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.44	55% 1410-1176 (2586)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.0K	$957.45	-$10.64	61% 3907-2452 (6359)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$201.4	$94.13	-$107.27	55% 7013-5629 (12642)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$91.18	$89.2	-$1.98	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 78.8¢	$44.95	$56.99	+$12.04	53% 11512-10014 (21526)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 46¢	$804.27	$0.87	-$803.4	54% 2298-1976 (4274)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 45¢	$270	$0.3	-$269.7	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$12.72	$0.01	-$12.71	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$0.96	$0.01	-$0.95	—

roldy

Over

Invested

$1,741.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.44

Record

55%

1410-1176 (2586)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$957.45

PnL

-$10.64

Record

61%

3907-2452 (6359)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$201.4

Value

$94.13

PnL

-$107.27

Record

55%

7013-5629 (12642)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.18

Value

$89.2

PnL

-$1.98

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$44.95

Value

$56.99

PnL

+$12.04

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$804.27

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$803.4

Record

54%

2298-1976 (4274)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$270

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$269.7

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.72

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$12.71

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.95

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.