Spread: Sabres (-1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (67%) · Ducks at 70¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 30

Sabres30¢Ducks70¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 67%

Total Value

$15.7K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 70¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sabres30%

Ducks70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks8 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares22,248

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Sabres4 traders

Total Value$441.04

Total Shares2,506

Combined PnL-$390.57

Ducks — 67%Sabres — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrDucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Ducksavg 62.5¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$450	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
HO HomeRunHazard	Ducksavg 62.5¢	$3.1K	$4.7K	+$1.6K	54% 17024-14269 (31293)
0xheavy888	Ducksavg 62.5¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$960	55% 7013-5629 (12642)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Ducksavg 62¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$13.5	54% 4832-4068 (8900)
38 38791873984189	Ducksavg 62¢	$618.76	$683.63	+$64.87	—
CH chubbytoroCTR	Sabresavg 35.1¢	$796.72	$363.67	-$433.06	47% 87-98 (185)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Ducksavg 62.5¢	$49.38	$54.12	+$4.74	54% 2953-2534 (5487)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sabresavg 15¢	$19.02	$35.24	+$16.22	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Sabresavg 12¢	$12	$32	+$20	49% 690-725 (1415)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Ducksavg 63¢	$30.05	$31.84	+$1.79	58% 28303-20884 (49187)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ducksavg 62¢	$21.1	$23.31	+$2.21	57% 13427-10262 (23689)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sabresavg 12¢	$3.86	$10.13	+$6.27	59% 9768-6750 (16518)

VeryLucky888

Ducks

Invested

$4,687.5

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$450

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

HomeRunHazard

Ducks

Invested

$3,108.19

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

17024-14269 (31293)

0xheavy888

Ducks

Invested

$1,779.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$960

Record

55%

7013-5629 (12642)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Ducks

Invested

$1,674

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.5

Record

54%

4832-4068 (8900)

38791873984189

Ducks

Invested

$618.76

Value

$683.63

PnL

+$64.87

Record

—

chubbytoroCTR

Sabres

Invested

$796.72

Value

$363.67

PnL

-$433.06

Record

47%

87-98 (185)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Ducks

Invested

$49.38

Value

$54.12

PnL

+$4.74

Record

54%

2953-2534 (5487)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$19.02

Value

$35.24

PnL

+$16.22

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$12

Value

$32

PnL

+$20

Record

49%

690-725 (1415)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Ducks

Invested

$30.05

Value

$31.84

PnL

+$1.79

Record

58%

28303-20884 (49187)

ghorrock<$100

Ducks

Invested

$21.1

Value

$23.31

PnL

+$2.21

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sabres

Invested

$3.86

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$6.27

Record

59%

9768-6750 (16518)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrDucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.