Spread: Bruins (-1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (86%) · Blues at 71¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30

Bruins29¢Blues71¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blues

Consensus Traders

Blues 86%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$24.42

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 71¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blues

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bruins29%

Blues71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bruins1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,004

Combined PnL-$0

Blues6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,949

Combined PnL+$24.42

Bruins — 14%Blues — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlues 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrBlues 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBlues 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Blues 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Bruinsavg 29¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	54% 122-105 (227)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Bluesavg 70¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$21	54% 4826-4065 (8891)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Bluesavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	47% 2449-2746 (5195)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bluesavg 70¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$16.49	54% 17008-14254 (31262)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Bluesavg 71¢	$710	$700	-$10	53% 5549-4916 (10465)
0xheavy888	Bluesavg 71.8¢	$159	$112.1	-$2.13	55% 6994-5612 (12606)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bluesavg 72¢	$33.84	$32.9	-$0.94	58% 28255-20837 (49092)

taylorsversionCTR

Bruins

Invested

$1,741.1

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

122-105 (227)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Blues

Invested

$1,470

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$21

Record

54%

4826-4065 (8891)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Blues

Invested

$1,395.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2449-2746 (5195)

HomeRunHazard

Blues

Invested

$1,154.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$16.49

Record

54%

17008-14254 (31262)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Blues

Invested

$710

Value

$700

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5549-4916 (10465)

0xheavy888

Blues

Invested

$159

Value

$112.1

PnL

-$2.13

Record

55%

6994-5612 (12606)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Blues

Invested

$33.84

Value

$32.9

PnL

-$0.94

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Blues

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBlues 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrBlues 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBlues 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Blues 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blues wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.