Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Blues, while the market favors Bruins (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bruins vs. Blues
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (50%) · Blues at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Blues
4
Blues 50%
$2.4K
-$22.49
51¢ → 50¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlues at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bruins 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Bluesavg 51¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$35.11 | 49% 18665-19093 (37758) |
RO royalestake | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $596.19 | $608.35 | +$12.17 | 46% 372-430 (802) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Bluesavg 50¢ | $15.8 | $15.8 | +$0 | 52% 1646-1521 (3167) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Bruinsavg 48¢ | $29.83 | $14.77 | +$0.45 | 56% 6927-5543 (12470) |
Invested
$1,790.45
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$35.11
Record
49%
18665-19093 (37758)
Invested
$596.19
Value
$608.35
PnL
+$12.17
Record
46%
372-430 (802)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$15.8
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1646-1521 (3167)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$29.83
Value
$14.77
PnL
+$0.45
Record
56%
6927-5543 (12470)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.