Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bruins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$47.11

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 50¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,050

Combined PnL+$46.25

Over7 traders

Total Value$276.46

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$0.86

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Reformedx	Underavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$45	52% 775-722 (1497)
TO torta.tech	Overavg 53¢	$137.27	$137.27	+$0	63% 7957-4739 (12696)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 43.6¢	$83.83	$83.59	-$0.24	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$54.78	$55.02	+$0.97	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$33.58	$33.22	+$0.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$21.2	$21.8	+$0.6
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 60¢	$36.49	$35.72	+$2.23	57% 2057-1547 (3604)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26	$27.25	+$1.25	56% 6856-5494 (12350)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 47¢	$8.46	$8.19	-$0.27	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 53¢	$5.42	$4.65	-$0.77	53% 11428-9958 (21386)
RO royalestake<$100	Overavg 46¢	$4.26	$4.21	-$0.05	46% 366-422 (788)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.87	$2.81	-$0.06	54% 2744-2368 (5112)

Reformedx

Under

Invested

$1,590

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$45

Record

52%

775-722 (1497)

torta.tech

Over

Invested

$137.27

Value

$137.27

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

7957-4739 (12696)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$83.83

Value

$83.59

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$54.78

Value

$55.02

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Both legs:

Invested

$36.49

Value

$35.72

PnL

+$2.23

Record

57%

2057-1547 (3604)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$5.42

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

11428-9958 (21386)

royalestake<$100

Over

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

366-422 (788)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.