Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hurricanes, while the market favors Bruins (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (75%) · Hurricanes at 23¢ · $157 held · ended Oct 28

Hurricanes23¢Bruins77¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hurricanes

Consensus Traders

Hurricanes 75%

Total Value

$157.37

Combined PnL

$9.07

Research grade

AvoidHurricanes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bruins 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes23%

Bruins77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bruins1 trader

Total Value$60.77

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$4

Hurricanes3 traders

Total Value$96.6

Total Shares420

Combined PnL+$5.07

Bruins — 25%Hurricanes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888<$100	Bruinsavg 71¢	$56.78	$60.77	+$4	56% 6858-5498 (12356)
RN1CTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 23¢	$53.82	$53.82	+$0	54% 55509-47585 (103094)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 18.5¢	$22.2	$27.6	+$5.4	53% 11428-9958 (21386)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 29¢	$15.51	$15.18	-$0.33	50% 6761-6761 (13522)

0xheavy888<$100

Bruins

Invested

$56.78

Value

$60.77

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

6858-5498 (12356)

RN1CTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$53.82

Value

$53.82

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

55509-47585 (103094)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$22.2

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$5.4

Record

53%

11428-9958 (21386)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$15.51

Value

$15.18

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

Research grade

AvoidHurricanes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hurricanes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bruins 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hurricanes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.