Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (25%) · Bruins at 62¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Hurricanes39¢Bruins61¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bruins

Consensus Traders

Bruins 25%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$0.66

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 61.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBruins at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bruins

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes39%

Bruins62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bruins2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,449

Combined PnL+$0.17

Hurricanes6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,880

Combined PnL+$0.49

Bruins — 25%Hurricanes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Bruinsavg 59¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0	47% 77-86 (163)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Hurricanesavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	54% 2267-1955 (4222)
ReformedxCTR	Hurricanesavg 41¢	$820	$820	+$0	52% 775-722 (1497)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 41¢	$22.14	$22.14	+$0.27	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 41¢	$17.63	$17.63	+$0.22	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 41¢	$11.27	$11.27	+$0	57% 12984-9900 (22884)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Hurricanesavg 41¢	$6.97	$6.97	+$0	54% 2891-2482 (5373)
0xheavy888<$100	Bruinsavg 58¢	$6.64	$6.82	+$0.17	56% 6856-5494 (12350)

chubbytoro

Bruins

Invested

$3,208.2

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Hurricanes

Invested

$1,122.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2267-1955 (4222)

ReformedxCTR

Hurricanes

Invested

$820

Value

$820

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

775-722 (1497)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$22.14

Value

$22.14

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$17.63

Value

$17.63

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$11.27

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

12984-9900 (22884)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2891-2482 (5373)

0xheavy888<$100

Bruins

Invested

$6.64

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

Research grade

NeutralBruins at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bruins

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bruins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.