Spread: Bruins (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (71%) · Hurricanes at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Hurricanes
7
Hurricanes 71%
$3.1K
-$6.64
80.5¢ → 83.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralHurricanes at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Hurricanesavg 80.6¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$3.32 | 56% 6856-5494 (12350) |
JU justaluckydude | Hurricanesavg 77.8¢ | $103.54 | $97.09 | -$6.45 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Bruinsavg 19¢ | $72.23 | $74.13 | +$1.9 | 50% 5748-5850 (11598) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Hurricanesavg 81¢ | $21.06 | $20.93 | -$0.13 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Hurricanesavg 81¢ | $14.18 | $14.09 | -$0.09 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Bruinsavg 19¢ | $12.16 | $12.48 | +$0.32 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Hurricanesavg 73¢ | $14.6 | $12.08 | +$1.13 | 57% 2057-1547 (3604) |
0xheavy888Invested
$2,836.99
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$3.32
Record
56%
6856-5494 (12350)
Invested
$103.54
Value
$97.09
PnL
-$6.45
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$72.23
Value
$74.13
PnL
+$1.9
Record
50%
5748-5850 (11598)
Invested
$21.06
Value
$20.93
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
Invested
$14.18
Value
$14.09
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$12.48
PnL
+$0.32
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$12.08
PnL
+$1.13
Record
57%
2057-1547 (3604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.