Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 38.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 67¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 13

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$453.02

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 66.5¢

+30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,267

Combined PnL+$858.99

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,659

Combined PnL-$405.97

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xNuttawut	Underavg 51¢	$2.9K	$3.8K	+$881.79	51% 25-24 (49)
RN1CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.79	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$1.3K	$852.24	-$398.76	42% 331-451 (782)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$729.66	$685.77	-$43.89	52% 411-380 (791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$524.28	$358.14	-$166.14
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$205.38	$327.63	+$122.25
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 55¢	$330	$300	-$30	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54¢	$309.72	$244.5	-$24.22	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 50¢	$86.74	$62.84	+$2.35	54% 545-473 (1018)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$49.99	$32.49	-$17.5	24% 204-663 (867)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$26.95	$9.8	-$2.15	52% 399-371 (770)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$8.7	$7.35	-$1.35	45% 143-173 (316)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 57¢	$7.6	$6.67	-$0.93	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$0.5	+$20	50% 306-311 (617)

0xNuttawut

Under

Invested

$2,900.57

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$881.79

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,165.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.79

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,251

Value

$852.24

PnL

-$398.76

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$729.66

Value

$685.77

PnL

-$43.89

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

Both legs:

Over$524.2848.3¢-$166.14

Under$205.3842¢+$122.25

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$330

Value

$300

PnL

-$30

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$309.72

Value

$244.5

PnL

-$24.22

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$86.74

Value

$62.84

PnL

+$2.35

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.99

Value

$32.49

PnL

-$17.5

Record

24%

204-663 (867)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.95

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.7

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$1.35

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$0.93

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$1,979.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$20

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.