Spread: Giants (-7.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (38%) · Commanders at 76¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Commanders
8
Commanders 38%
$7.4K
$30.8
75.7¢ → 75.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCommanders at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
38% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Commandersavg 76¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$22.22 | 52% 350-326 (676) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Giantsavg 25¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$0 | 16% 49-253 (302) |
 VeryLucky888 | Commandersavg 75¢ | $4.7K | $1.6K | +$52.69 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Giantsavg 25¢ | $577.25 | $577.25 | +$0 | 44% 164-210 (374) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Giantsavg 25¢ | $65.15 | $65.15 | +$0 | 27% 52-141 (193) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Giantsavg 25¢ | $50.76 | $50.76 | +$0 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Giantsavg 25¢ | $49.23 | $49.23 | +$0 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Commandersavg 75¢ | $24.75 | $25.08 | +$0.33 | 49% 1071-1128 (2199) |
nigiri99Invested
$3,377.44
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$22.22
Record
52%
350-326 (676)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$1,624.76
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
49-253 (302)
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,701.16
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$52.69
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$577.25
Value
$577.25
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
164-210 (374)
Invested
$65.15
Value
$65.15
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
52-141 (193)
Invested
$50.76
Value
$50.76
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$49.23
Value
$49.23
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$0.33
Record
49%
1071-1128 (2199)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.