Spread: Giants (-5.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (80%) · Commanders at 77¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 13

Giants24¢Commanders76¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$392.67

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 76.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants24%

Commanders77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders8 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares12,318

Combined PnL+$376.88

Giants2 traders

Total Value$944.05

Total Shares3,992

Combined PnL+$15.79

Commanders — 80%Giants — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Commandersavg 65¢	$5.4K	$5.0K	+$360.2	52% 399-371 (770)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Commandersavg 77¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$54.24	52% 411-380 (791)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 23¢	$896.77	$916.27	+$19.5	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
AN Anon455	Commandersavg 65¢	$421.85	$454.3	+$32.45	50% 306-311 (617)
65 6512395314597884	Commandersavg 69¢	$277.1	$311.13	+$34.03	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Commandersavg 75¢	$61.88	$62.29	+$0.41	56% 731-586 (1317)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Commandersavg 67¢	$57.04	$49.42	+$3.17	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 67¢	$24.84	$28.74	+$4.93
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 24.3¢	$22.33	$20.68	-$1.76
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Giantsavg 34¢	$31.48	$27.78	-$3.7	61% 985-619 (1604)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 64¢	$24.32	$26.6	+$2.28	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189<$100	Commandersavg 64¢	$20.77	$22.72	+$1.95	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
PA pauleta23<$100	Commandersavg 77¢	$10	$9.81	-$0.19	36% 320-570 (890)

nigiri99

Commanders

Invested

$5,366.6

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$360.2

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Commanders

Invested

$3,142.73

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$54.24

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$896.77

Value

$916.27

PnL

+$19.5

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Anon455

Commanders

Invested

$421.85

Value

$454.3

PnL

+$32.45

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

6512395314597884

Commanders

Invested

$277.1

Value

$311.13

PnL

+$34.03

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

averagejoetraders<$100

Commanders

Invested

$61.88

Value

$62.29

PnL

+$0.41

Record

56%

731-586 (1317)

NotJumpARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$57.04

Value

$49.42

PnL

+$3.17

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Commanders$24.8467¢+$4.93

Giants$22.3324.3¢-$1.76

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$31.48

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$3.7

Record

61%

985-619 (1604)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$24.32

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$2.28

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189<$100

Commanders

Invested

$20.77

Value

$22.72

PnL

+$1.95

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

pauleta23<$100

Commanders

Invested

$10

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$0.19

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.