Spread: Giants (-4.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (77%) · Commanders at 75¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 13

Giants26¢Commanders74¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 77%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$389.42

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 74.5¢

+22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants26%

Commanders75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders10 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,843

Combined PnL+$559.46

Giants3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares7,659

Combined PnL-$948.88

Commanders — 77%Giants — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCommanders 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Commandersavg 59.7¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$245.76	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 26.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$50.72	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
nigiri99	Commandersavg 63.4¢	$894.94	$1.0K	+$114.64	52% 399-371 (770)
AN Anon455	Commandersavg 62¢	$819.95	$872.85	+$52.9	50% 306-311 (617)
65 6512395314597884	Commandersavg 62¢	$499.84	$599.68	+$112	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 39.4¢	$2.4K	$513.16	-$882.88	52% 411-380 (791)
VeryLucky888CTR	Giantsavg 36¢	$275.16	$259.87	-$15.29	52% 881-800 (1681)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Commandersavg 56¢	$143.26	$168.84	+$25.58	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Commandersavg 73¢	$54.75	$55.13	+$0.38	56% 731-586 (1317)
NO NotJump<$100	Commandersavg 69.9¢	$89.29	$39.04	+$7.42	54% 545-473 (1018)
PA Pan9X<$100	Commandersavg 63.6¢	$37.12	$25.84	+$1.32	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
PA pauleta23<$100	Commandersavg 75¢	$10	$10	+$0	36% 320-570 (890)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Commandersavg 62¢	$5.58	$5.04	-$0.54	30% 67-157 (224)

RN1

Commanders

Invested

$2,325.93

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$245.76

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$1,295.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50.72

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

nigiri99

Commanders

Invested

$894.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$114.64

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

Anon455

Commanders

Invested

$819.95

Value

$872.85

PnL

+$52.9

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

6512395314597884

Commanders

Invested

$499.84

Value

$599.68

PnL

+$112

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$2,445.79

Value

$513.16

PnL

-$882.88

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

VeryLucky888CTR

Giants

Invested

$275.16

Value

$259.87

PnL

-$15.29

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Commanders

Invested

$143.26

Value

$168.84

PnL

+$25.58

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

averagejoetraders<$100

Commanders

Invested

$54.75

Value

$55.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

56%

731-586 (1317)

NotJump<$100

Commanders

Invested

$89.29

Value

$39.04

PnL

+$7.42

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Pan9X<$100

Commanders

Invested

$37.12

Value

$25.84

PnL

+$1.32

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

pauleta23<$100

Commanders

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

Oddstorm<$100

Commanders

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.54

Record

30%

67-157 (224)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCommanders 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Commanders 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.