Spread: Commanders (-6.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (56%) · Giants at 68¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 13

Commanders33¢Giants67¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 56%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$233.12

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 67.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Commanders33%

Giants68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,073

Combined PnL-$238.08

Commanders4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,096

Combined PnL+$4.96

Giants — 56%Commanders — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGiants 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Giantsavg 73.9¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$232.89	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Giantsavg 69.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$2.18	52% 411-380 (791)
AN Anon455CTR	Commandersavg 31¢	$620	$610	-$10	50% 306-311 (617)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Commandersavg 30¢	$360	$366	+$6	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Commandersavg 24¢	$166.08	$173	+$6.92	45% 178-222 (400)
NO NotJump<$100	Giantsavg 71¢	$56.41	$52.81	-$3.6	54% 545-473 (1018)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Commandersavg 24¢	$48.96	$51	+$2.04	52% 399-371 (770)
PA Pan9X<$100	Giantsavg 76¢	$63.93	$35.35	-$3.83	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Giantsavg 72¢	$4.32	$4.38	+$0.06	30% 67-157 (224)

38791873984189

Giants

Invested

$2,984.54

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$232.89

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Giants

Invested

$2,244.75

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$2.18

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

Anon455CTR

Commanders

Invested

$620

Value

$610

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

6512395314597884CTR

Commanders

Invested

$360

Value

$366

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

Forecastication2CTR

Commanders

Invested

$166.08

Value

$173

PnL

+$6.92

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

NotJump<$100

Giants

Invested

$56.41

Value

$52.81

PnL

-$3.6

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$48.96

Value

$51

PnL

+$2.04

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

Pan9X<$100

Giants

Invested

$63.93

Value

$35.35

PnL

-$3.83

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Oddstorm<$100

Giants

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.06

Record

30%

67-157 (224)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGiants 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.