Spread: Commanders (-3.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (50%) · Giants at 68¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13

Commanders33¢Giants67¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$14.26

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 67.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders33%

Giants68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,897

Combined PnL-$51.84

Commanders4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,590

Combined PnL+$37.58

Giants — 50%Commanders — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Giantsavg 67.9¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$50.34	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
nigiri99CTR	Commandersavg 32.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$37.57	52% 388-362 (750)
0xheavy888	Giantsavg 67.7¢	$113.68	$113.4	-$0.28	56% 312-248 (560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Giantsavg 68¢	$55.08	$54.27	-$0.81	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Commandersavg 33¢	$48.7	$47.97	-$0.74	28% 58-150 (208)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Giantsavg 68¢	$27.88	$27.47	-$0.41	43% 119-161 (280)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Commandersavg 32¢	$19.52	$20.13	+$0.61	44% 177-221 (398)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Commandersavg 31¢	$2.17	$2.31	+$0.14	34% 639-1259 (1898)

38791873984189

Giants

Invested

$3,888.64

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$50.34

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

nigiri99CTR

Commanders

Invested

$2,076.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$37.57

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

0xheavy888

Giants

Invested

$113.68

Value

$113.4

PnL

-$0.28

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

Pan9X<$100

Giants

Invested

$55.08

Value

$54.27

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

OddstormCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$48.7

Value

$47.97

PnL

-$0.74

Record

28%

58-150 (208)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Giants

Invested

$27.88

Value

$27.47

PnL

-$0.41

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$19.52

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$0.61

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.14

Record

34%

639-1259 (1898)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCommanders 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Giants 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.