Commanders vs. Giants: 1H O/U 22.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 13

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$124.91

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 58.5¢

+7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares9,751

Combined PnL+$344.51

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares11,354

Combined PnL-$469.42

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 54¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$322.07	59% 466-322 (788)
PE penguin1125CTR	Overavg 45.8¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$515.55	3% 4-112 (116)
nigiri99	Underavg 57.5¢	$707.07	$719.55	+$12.48	52% 370-342 (712)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 41.4¢	$236.63	$240.03	+$3.39	42% 98-135 (233)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 55¢	$110	$116	+$6	36% 556-976 (1532)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 58¢	$98.9	$98.9	+$0	19% 210-904 (1114)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Underavg 54¢	$53.46	$57.42	+$3.96	29% 51-126 (177)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$24.6	$24.6	-$0	66% 1802-934 (2736)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 40¢	$822.74	$5.5	+$42.73	52% 816-742 (1558)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$4,347.93

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$322.07

Record

59%

466-322 (788)

penguin1125CTR

Over

Invested

$4,906.55

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$515.55

Record

4-112 (116)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$707.07

Value

$719.55

PnL

+$12.48

Record

52%

370-342 (712)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$236.63

Value

$240.03

PnL

+$3.39

Record

42%

98-135 (233)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$110

Value

$116

PnL

+$6

Record

36%

556-976 (1532)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$98.9

Value

$98.9

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

210-904 (1114)

Bagwell306<$100

Under

Invested

$53.46

Value

$57.42

PnL

+$3.96

Record

29%

51-126 (177)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$0

Record

66%

1802-934 (2736)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$822.74

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$42.73

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.