Commanders vs. Giants

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (55%) · Giants at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Commanders45¢Giants55¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 55%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$86.58

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 55.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders45%

Giants56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,134

Combined PnL+$93.08

Commanders5 traders

Total Value$403.41

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$6.5

Giants — 55%Commanders — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGiants 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Giantsavg 51.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$88.09	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Commandersavg 46¢	$185.84	$179.78	-$6.06	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Commandersavg 45.4¢	$92.64	$93.9	+$1.27	48% 8328-8887 (17215)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Commandersavg 46¢	$92	$89	-$3	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
PA Pan9X<$100	Giantsavg 51.8¢	$59.52	$61.53	+$2.01	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
GA Gaditima<$100	Giantsavg 51¢	$17.25	$30.39	-$1.21	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
BA Bayupati<$100	Giantsavg 47¢	$23.13	$27.07	+$3.94	48% 281-299 (580)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Commandersavg 44¢	$22	$22.75	+$0.75	54% 593-502 (1095)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Commandersavg 45¢	$17.44	$17.98	+$0.54	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Giantsavg 54.6¢	$12.57	$12.65	+$0.09	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
RL RLWG<$100	Giantsavg 52.3¢	$7.85	$8.03	+$0.18	50% 8560-8732 (17292)

38791873984189

Giants

Invested

$1,098.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.09

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

SnakeBallCTR

Commanders

Invested

$185.84

Value

$179.78

PnL

-$6.06

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

OddstormCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$92.64

Value

$93.9

PnL

+$1.27

Record

48%

8328-8887 (17215)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$92

Value

$89

PnL

-$3

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Pan9X<$100

Giants

Invested

$59.52

Value

$61.53

PnL

+$2.01

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Gaditima<$100

Giants

Invested

$17.25

Value

$30.39

PnL

-$1.21

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

Bayupati<$100

Giants

Invested

$23.13

Value

$27.07

PnL

+$3.94

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$22

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

54%

593-502 (1095)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$17.44

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

6512395314597884<$100

Giants

Invested

$12.57

Value

$12.65

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

RLWG<$100

Giants

Invested

$7.85

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Giants

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGiants 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Giants 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.