Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Titans vs. Bengals: O/U 54.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.1K
$-1.2K
50.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 50.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.1K | -$302.55 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $112.17 | $19.12 | -$93.05 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
DR DreamwireCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $367.56 | $0.36 | -$367.2 | 83% 2683-538 (3221) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $53.25 | — | -$53.25 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Overavg 50¢ | $400 | — | -$400 | 53% 3214-2835 (6049) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,421.38
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$302.55
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$112.17
Value
$19.12
PnL
-$93.05
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$367.56
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$367.2
Record
83%
2683-538 (3221)
Invested
$53.25
Value
—
PnL
-$53.25
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$400
Value
—
PnL
-$400
Record
53%
3214-2835 (6049)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.