Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (91%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Titans vs. Bengals: O/U 52.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 9.0¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$5.1K
$610.92
47.6¢ → 9¢
-81% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$168.72 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $2.6K | $2.1K | -$564.96 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36¢ | $594.36 | $990.6 | +$396.24 | |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $1.2K | $1.8K | +$603.48 | 46% 367-427 (794) |
SE seeeeeeb | Overavg 76¢ | $150.48 | $151.47 | +$0.99 | 52% 804-728 (1532) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 69¢ | $138 | $139 | +$1 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $11.79 | $11.99 | +$0.2 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $6.72 | $9.24 | +$2.52 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $4.03 | $6.76 | +$2.73 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,213.72
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$168.72
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,181.28
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$603.48
Record
46%
367-427 (794)
Invested
$150.48
Value
$151.47
PnL
+$0.99
Record
52%
804-728 (1532)
Invested
$138
Value
$139
PnL
+$1
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$11.79
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$9.24
PnL
+$2.52
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$4.03
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$2.73
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.