Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Titans vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 50¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$60.14

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares21,347

Combined PnL-$24.08

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,782

Combined PnL-$36.06

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-TempCTR	Overavg 48¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$0	51% 220-214 (434)
FO forget4CTR	Overavg 50¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$30	44% 693-893 (1586)
AN Anon455	Underavg 51.5¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$40	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.64	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$14.71	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.28	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$471.03	$472.68	-$4.71	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$318.27	$315.15	-$3.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$152.76	$157.53	-$1.59
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Overavg 50¢	$245.05	$249.95	-$7.35	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$58.24	$58.24	+$0	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$49.27	$48.26	-$1.01	51% 506-478 (984)

Kch-TempCTR

Over

Invested

$5,712.74

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

forget4CTR

Over

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

44%

693-893 (1586)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$2,060

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$1,864.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.64

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

0x0A77exmm

Under

Invested

$1,499.91

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.71

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$1,370.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.28

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$471.03

Value

$472.68

PnL

-$4.71

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Both legs:

Under$318.2751¢-$3.12

Over$152.7648¢-$1.59

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Over

Invested

$245.05

Value

$249.95

PnL

-$7.35

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$58.24

Value

$58.24

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.27

Value

$48.26

PnL

-$1.01

Record

51%

506-478 (984)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.